Key Rating Drivers & Detailed Description
Strengths:
Healthy operational track record of assets with geographic diversification
The existing portfolio comprising of ten SPVs (excluding project SPVs to be acquired) in different states benefits from asset and geographical diversification. Additionally, the projects have strong counter parties – NHAI for 8 project SPVs and Ministry of Road Transport and Highways and Madhya Pradesh Road Development Corporation Ltd for the remaining two. The toll road projects have long tolling track record ranging from 8 to 22 years, while the annuity projects have track record of receiving 28 and 21 semi-annual annuities without any material deduction. All three HAM projects have achieved commercial operations date (COD) and received 3-4 annuity payments. The portfolio will further benefit from diversification after the proposed acquisitions of four toll and twelve HAM assets.
The toll stretches are situated along major industrial and tourist hubs and connect important cities such as Godhra, Jodhpur, Indore, Bhopal, Ahmedabad and Chennai to major ports on the western (Kandla and Mundra) and eastern (Chennai, Puducherry and Krishnapatnam) seaboards. The stretches are spread across seven key states (presence in nine states including proposed acquisitions) that contribute substantially to the total gross state domestic product. HIT will, thus, benefit from healthy traffic potential. Balance concession period of the projects ranges from 3 to 20 years. While the concession for three of the six initial stretches is expected to be over in next 3-4 years, their contribution to the initial portfolio was expected to be 35-40%. Hence, long term revenue visibility is driven by other three assets having larger share of revenue in the initial portfolio of 6 assets. Furthermore, the trust is in the process of acquiring new assets and will continue to look for new opportunities of adding assets and hence, further diversifying the portfolio over the medium term.
Three of the existing five toll projects have an annual toll rate escalation with a fixed increase of 3% and a variable portion equal to only 40% change in the wholesale price index (WPI), limiting dependence on WPI, thereby supporting revenue, while one project has a fixed toll rate hike of 7% and the remaining one is linked directly to the WPI. For the proposed acquisitions, while toll escalation rates are linked to WPI for Bangalore Elevated Tollway Pvt. Ltd (BETPL) and Swarna Tollway Pvt Ltd (STPL; ‘CRISIL AAA/Stable’) and it is linked to the consumer price index (CPI) for Gujarat Road and Infrastructure Co Ltd (GRICL) and 3% plus 40% change in WPI for PNC toll asset.
Toll revenue for the initial portfolio of 4 assets grew by ~24% in fiscal 2023 to Rs 564 crore driven by traffic growth of 7-18% in fiscal 2023, across stretches. Traffic and toll collection is expected to remain healthy going forward as well.
Strong debt protection metrics, with provision for cash sweep and creation of DSRA and MMRA
Financial risk profile is healthy with existing outstanding debt of ~Rs 3,515 crore at InvIT level as on date. HIT is expected to raise incremental debt of ~Rs 1,024 crore at the time of acquisition of one HAM project (received provisional COD recently) of H.G. Infra Engineers Ltd (H.G. Infra), BETPL, STPL and GRICL along with additional investment from unitholders. The resultant average DSCR is expected to remain strong with cash flows remaining sufficient to service incremental debt as well as premium payments.
The terms for existing debt also require adequate liquidity cushion in form of three months DSRA and six months MMRA. As per existing terms, cash trap will be triggered if DSCR falls below 1.40 times, while there will be a cash sweep in case of negative impact on tollable traffic on account of an alternate route to the project roads. The structure also stipulates that any transfer to the distribution account will be made only post meeting debt obligation, DSRA and MMRA requirement, and transfer to the cash sweep account, if required. Furthermore, as per the terms of Rupee Term Loan 1, the debt is capped at 49% of the trust’s valuation.
While the covenants for DSCR and leverage are to be relaxed in the new debt, DSCR for the rated debt instruments is expected to remain comfortable and well above the covenants throughout the debt tenure, supported by healthy toll collection and moderate leverage. Hence, CRISIL Ratings believes that relaxation in financial covenants will not have a material impact on HIT’s credit risk profile. However, increase in debt from current levels, in the absence of commensurate cash inflows, will remain a key rating sensitivity factor.
The existing NCDs have a tenor of three years 3 months and 7 years for tranche-1 and tranche-2, respectively, exposing the trust to refinancing risk. Nevertheless, the risk is mitigated by a long tail at the end of tenure of NCDs, ability and track record of the sponsors in refinancing, and healthy revenue potential of the road stretches.
Experienced management team
HIT will benefit from the strong asset management ability of Galaxy Investments II Pte. Ltd, (the Sponsor or Galaxy), which is affiliated with funds, vehicles and/or entities managed and/or advised by affiliates of KKR, which in turn has strong experience in the infrastructure space, including in India. While this is Galaxy’s first investment in Indian roads, it benefits from KKR’s experience in renewable energy and transmission sector in India. Additionally, the assets will be managed by experienced service providers HC1 and HC1 PM, who have a long track of managing these assets.
Weaknesses:
Susceptibility of toll revenue to volatility in traffic, or development or improvement of alternative routes
Toll collection is a major source of revenue and is susceptible to volatility because of toll leakages, competing routes, lack of timely increase in toll rates, fluctuation in WPI-linked inflation, seasonal variations in vehicular traffic, and economic downturns. For instance, traffic and toll collection across stretches was affected due to government policies like demonetisation in fiscal 2017 and the nation-wide lockdown following the Covid-19 pandemic in fiscal 2021 and 2022.
While the stretches do not face any substantial threat from alternate routes as of now, improvement of these routes or development of new alternate routes may affect traffic and diversion, if any, on account of any of these will be a key rating sensitivity factor.
Susceptibility to volatility in O&M and major maintenance costs and interest rates
The trust is exposed to risks related to maintenance of the projects in the underlying SPVs as per the specifications and within the budgeted costs. While the SPVs are expected to maintain six months equivalent MMRA, any significant dip in toll collection or unplanned maintenance activity could result in cash flow shortfall during years of such maintenance and will remain a rating sensitive factor.
The interest rate for the rupee term debt shall be floating with an annual reset linked to benchmark. This exposes the trust to volatility in interest rates. Although part of the debt raised through bonds has fixed rate the cushion in the cash flow, will partially help to absorb the impact of any fluctuations in rate of interest, but it will remain a rating sensitivity factor.